West London Property Market Update: Steady in the face of speculation

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West London Property Market Update: Steady in the face of speculation

With September now underway, the usual seasonal energy in the West London property market is meeting a new source of speculation: The potential for significant property tax reform in October’s budget.

While nothing has been confirmed, early conversations are having some level of impact and shaping decisions among a small number of buyers and sellers.

Local sentiment

We have been having a wealth of conversations with buyers and sellers this week surrounding the recent proposal for property tax. Here are the headlines, here is what it means for buyers and sellers, here is what Rightmove says — and our message is “keep calm and carry on.”

What does this really mean for those looking to move in 2025? The headline news seems intent on sending home movers into a spin but as is usually the case, a pragmatic approach is required to navigate the current market climate.

What could change?

Reports suggest the Chancellor may look at replacing stamp duty with an annual property tax on homes valued over £500,000, alongside the introduction of a potential ‘mansion tax’ on properties worth over £1.5 million. Proposals to shift tax liability from buyers to sellers are also being discussed, while landlords could face a new National Insurance levy on rental income.

Data from Rightmove underlines how significant such reforms could be:

• 59% of London homes currently listed for sale are priced above £500,000, meaning they would fall into scope of the new annual property tax
• One in ten London homes on the market are priced above £1.5 million and could be affected by a ‘mansion tax’
• Across the country, first-time buyers account for around a third of all sales currently going through the legal system

Who is likely to wait?

Not all buyers will respond in the same way. Motivated buyers with a clear need to move are unlikely to be deterred, recognising that lifestyle changes and personal circumstances often outweigh speculation around tax. First-time buyers, by contrast, could be more likely to wait, as they are under less pressure to move and often have deposits and stamp duty budgets stretched to the limit – and there would be an appeal to making a significant saving on tax should it be abolished. Speculative buyers, or those already under offer but having second thoughts, could seize on the pending budget as an excuse to stall or withdraw altogether.

The gamble of holding back

Even if reforms are announced in October, implementation will take considerable time, and as with many proposed changes of this magnitude, the details can take years to be ironed out, particularly changed of such a long-established system. Meanwhile, waiting carries its own risks. Prices may rise if sellers restrict supply, mortgage rates could move higher, and any saving on tax might simply be factored into asking prices by vendors.

A notable proportion of homes across West London are already selling for less than their previous purchase price over the last decade. For buyers, this represents a window of opportunity.

What does this mean for home movers?

While the debate around tax reform will no doubt dominate the coming weeks, it is important to remember that the fundamentals of the market remain steady. Those who need to move are continuing with their plans, while those waiting face a calculation with no guaranteed outcome.

The West London property market remains active, balanced, and resilient - and those focused on real lifestyle needs are still finding the right opportunities.

Landlords might see yet more change

Alongside speculation on property tax, there are reports that the Chancellor is considering applying National Insurance to rental income, a measure said to be capable of raising more than £2bn for the Treasury. For now, this remains at the proposal stage and no detail has been confirmed.

The Renters’ Rights Bill is also still making its way through Parliament after years of discussion, and any changes are unlikely to come into effect until late 2025 or beyond. In the meantime, the private rental sector continues to play a vital role in West London, where stability is essential to maintaining affordability and choice.

At the same time, the lettings market has shown real resilience. According to the Office for National Statistics, average UK monthly private rents increased by 5.9% to £1,343 in the 12 months to July 2025, with London rents rising by 6.3%. In Hounslow, average private rents climbed by a striking 10.1% year-on-year to £1,887, outpacing the London average. Demand also strengthened in July, with a 25% uplift in new applicant registrations and an average of 18.5 renters competing for each available property. Applicant budgets continue to edge higher, up 4% year-on-year in West London, underlining both the competitiveness and the resilience of the local rental market.

To talk to Horton and Garton about your property, whether you are seeking to buy, sell, let or rent, please do get in touch for a no obligation discussion.

See more details about the beautiful property in Bedford Park borders shown in the header here, or contact our team on 020 3989 6464.

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September 4, 2025